Bank Earnings Season Opens With Capital Markets Strength, Credit Risk Questions
Strong capital markets activity has buoyed major bank results heading into Q2 2026 earnings, but analysts warn that deposit costs and credit quality now represent the primary variables that could...
Major U.S. bank earnings reports for the second quarter of 2026 are set to begin this week against a backdrop of elevated investor expectations, according to analyst commentary published July 13, 2026, by Bloomberg. KBW analyst Chris McGratty, speaking on Bloomberg's Open Interest program, identified capital markets activity as a continuing tailwind for large institutions, while flagging deposit costs and credit quality as the two factors most likely to determine whether results meet, exceed, or fall short of consensus estimates.
McGratty singled out Morgan Stanley as his top large-bank selection within the sector, citing strong capital markets positioning, though he acknowledged the stock carries what he described as 'rich valuations' relative to peers. The statement was made in a Bloomberg broadcast interview and does not constitute a formal research rating; Morgan Stanley's most recent quarterly filings are publicly available through the SEC's EDGAR system at sec.gov.
Deposit costs have been a focal point for bank analysts since the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle that began in March 2022. Banks that locked in higher-cost deposits during that period face ongoing margin pressure as rates have moved. The precise deposit-cost figures for Q2 2026 will be disclosed in each institution's earnings release and accompanying 10-Q filings with the SEC, the primary public record for verifying actual figures.
Credit quality — specifically, the rate at which borrowers default on loans — is the second variable McGratty highlighted. Aggregate charge-off and delinquency data is reported quarterly by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) in its Quarterly Banking Profile, the most recent edition of which covers Q1 2026. Q2 2026 FDIC data will not be publicly available until the agency publishes its next profile, typically six to eight weeks after quarter-end.
What remains unknown at this time includes the actual Q2 2026 earnings figures for any of the major institutions, as no major bank has released results as of this report's publication date of July 13, 2026. The public records that will answer outstanding questions are: SEC 10-Q filings from each bank, earnings call transcripts posted to investor relations pages, and the FDIC's forthcoming Q2 2026 Quarterly Banking Profile.