Immigration Courts Denied 94 Percent of Asylum Cases in June 2026

The lowest asylum grant rate in recorded TRAC history arrives alongside an op-ed argument that only congressional statute can prevent reversal by future administrations.

Immigration judges denied 94 percent of asylum cases decided in June 2026 and granted 5.5 percent, the lowest denial-to-grant ratio in data maintained by Syracuse University's Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC), according to a Washington Examiner op-ed published October 28, 2026, that cited the TRAC dataset directly.

The TRAC project at Syracuse University compiles immigration court statistics drawn from the Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR), a component of the Department of Justice. TRAC's dataset is a public record, accessible through its immigration court tool, and covers decisions issued by U.S. Immigration judges across all immigration courts nationwide.

For context, TRAC data from prior fiscal years shows that asylum grant rates have varied substantially depending on administration and policy environment. In fiscal year 2016, the grant rate averaged roughly 44 percent. In fiscal year 2020 it fell to approximately 29 percent. The June 2026 figure of 5.5 percent represents a further reduction below any previously recorded monthly rate in the TRAC series, according to the Washington Examiner piece, which attributed that characterization to the TRAC data itself.

The op-ed's author, who identified as an attorney with deposition experience, argued that the current rate reflects a court system reset driven by two administrative actions: firings within the immigration judge corps and the issuance of new binding precedent decisions by the Attorney General, who under 8 U.S.C. Section 1103(g) holds authority to certify immigration cases to themselves and issue precedent rulings binding on all immigration judges.

Precedent decisions issued by an Attorney General can be reversed by a subsequent Attorney General. Similarly, immigration judges serve at the pleasure of the executive branch and are not Article III judges with lifetime tenure. The op-ed argued that both levers, personnel and precedent, are inherently reversible absent a statutory foundation set by Congress.

The call for congressional action centers on codifying the substantive asylum adjudication standards currently being applied into permanent statute. Under current law, the primary asylum standard is set by the Immigration and Nationality Act, 8 U.S.C. Section 1158, but the interpretation of key terms such as "particular social group" has been developed through administrative precedent rather than statute, leaving those definitions subject to revision through future Attorney General certification.

As of October 28, 2026, no bill to codify the current adjudication framework has been introduced in either chamber, according to the congressional record available through Congress.gov. What legislation, if any, is in preparation by committee staff is not reflected in any public record reviewed for this story.

The 94 percent denial rate applies to cases decided in June 2026. It does not reflect the total pending docket. TRAC data separately tracks the backlog of pending immigration cases, which as of the most recent available reporting had exceeded 3 million cases across all immigration courts. The June 2026 decision rate, applied at scale, would produce a large number of removal orders, but the actual number of removals executed is tracked separately by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) through its Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) statistics, which are published quarterly.

The asylum process begins when a non-citizen present in the United States, or arriving at a port of entry, files an affirmative or defensive asylum application. Defensive applications are heard before an immigration judge when the applicant is in removal proceedings. A denial by an immigration judge can be appealed to the Board of Immigration Appeals (BIA), and BIA decisions can be appealed to the relevant federal Circuit Court of Appeals. The full appellate timeline means that cases denied in June 2026 may remain in the legal system for additional years.

What remains unknown is the precise breakdown of June 2026 denials by nationality, legal ground for denial, and whether denials were issued with or without prejudice to refiling. The TRAC dataset and individual EOIR case records, obtainable through Freedom of Information Act requests to DOJ, would provide that granularity. It is also unknown whether any Senate or House judiciary subcommittee has scheduled hearings on the asylum grant rate trend or the proposal to codify adjudication standards.