Brazil's Datafolha Projects Senator Omar Aziz as Amazonas Governor

A projected win for the centrist PSD in Amazonas signals continued fragmentation of Brazil's right-wing vote in the country's largest state by area.

Senator Omar Aziz of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) has been projected as the winner of the Amazonas state governorship race, according to the Datafolha polling institute, as reported by Folha de S.Paulo on October 25, 2026.

With 28.33 percent of votes counted in the second-round runoff, Aziz held 55.16 percent of valid votes against 44.84 percent for his opponent, Professora Maria do Carmo of the Liberal Party (PL), according to Folha de S.Paulo's real-time tabulation.

The runoff was necessary because neither candidate secured a majority in the first round. The incumbent governor of Amazonas, Roberto Cidade of the União Brasil party, was eliminated in that first round, finishing third, according to the same Folha de S.Paulo report.

Amazonas is Brazil's largest state by territory, covering approximately 1.57 million square kilometers according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The state encompasses a substantial portion of the Amazon rainforest and has significant weight in national debates over environmental policy and indigenous land governance.

Aziz is a veteran political figure in the state. He previously served as governor of Amazonas from 2003 to 2010 and has since held a Senate seat. His return to the governorship, if the Datafolha projection holds upon full vote count, would represent a return to executive power after more than fifteen years in federal legislative roles.

Maria do Carmo, his PL opponent, ran under the banner of a party closely aligned with former President Jair Bolsonaro. The PL has sought to build state-level power bases across Brazil ahead of the 2026 federal general elections. A loss in Amazonas would represent a setback for that organizational effort in a large northern state.

The PSD, Aziz's party, has positioned itself as a center-ground force in Brazilian politics, working at various times in coalition with both the administration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and with other parties. The party's performance in Amazonas may inform coalition calculations at the federal level going into the next congressional session.

The vote count was ongoing at the time of the Datafolha projection, with 28.33 percent of ballot boxes tallied. Datafolha projections in Brazilian runoff elections are derived from statistical modeling applied to partial counts and have historically carried a high degree of reliability, though the final certified result rests with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil's official electoral authority.

What remains unknown at publication time is the final certified margin and the full breakdown of votes by municipality within Amazonas. The TSE is the authoritative source that will confirm or revise the projected outcome once all votes are counted and validated.