Lowe's Shares Down 23 Percent Over One Year Amid Housing Slowdown

Elevated long-term interest rates have compressed home improvement retail demand, and Lowe's performance over the past year offers a measurable case study in how mortgage-rate sensitivity flows...

Shares of Lowe's Companies (NYSE: LOW) have declined approximately 23 percent over the past year, according to a Seeking Alpha equity analysis published October 8, 2026, making the stock a material underperformer relative to the broader S&P 500 index over the same period.

The primary factor cited in the analysis is a weak housing market environment driven by elevated long-term interest rates. Higher mortgage rates reduce the volume of home purchases, which historically correlates with reduced spending on home improvement projects. Lowe's, as one of the two dominant US home improvement retailers alongside Home Depot (HD), is directly exposed to that dynamic.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate at a range of 4.25 to 4.50 percent as of its most recent meeting, according to the Federal Reserve's official statements. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has remained elevated above 6.5 percent through much of 2026, according to Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, constraining both existing home sales and the renovation activity that tends to follow property transactions.

Existing home sales have remained under pressure throughout 2026. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales in August 2026 ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of approximately 3.86 million units, well below the pre-rate-hike average of roughly 5 to 6 million units annually recorded in 2020 and 2021.

Lowe's most recent earnings report, covering the fiscal second quarter ended August 2026, reflected those conditions. The company reported net sales of approximately $23.6 billion for the quarter, according to its SEC-filed earnings release, representing a decline from the prior-year comparable period. Comparable store sales, a metric that strips out the effect of store openings and closures, also fell year over year.

The Seeking Alpha analysis also references past merger and acquisition activity as an additional factor weighing on the company's financial position, though it does not specify which transactions. Lowe's completed its acquisition of Canadian home improvement retailer RONA in 2016 and later divested it in 2023, a sequence that affected the company's balance sheet across multiple fiscal years. The precise current-period financial impact of historical M&A activity is not quantified in the source material reviewed.

Despite the stock's decline, the Seeking Alpha analysis characterizes the outlook as one in which conditions are unlikely to worsen materially from current levels, which forms the basis of the publication's upgrade. The analysis does not specify a price target or a defined time horizon for the upgrade thesis. What would confirm or refute that thesis is a change in long-term interest rates, a recovery in existing home sales volume, or a shift in Lowe's comparable-store-sales trajectory in coming quarterly reports.

Lowe's operates approximately 1,748 stores across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, as stated in the company's most recent annual report filed with the SEC. Its primary US competitor, Home Depot, has also reported softness in comparable store sales in recent quarters, suggesting the headwind is sector-wide rather than company-specific.

The home improvement retail sector's sensitivity to housing turnover is well documented. A 2018 study published by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University found that approximately 20 percent of home improvement expenditure is directly triggered by home sales events, including move-in renovations. With sales volume suppressed by rate-driven affordability constraints, that 20 percent component of demand has been reduced structurally until rate conditions shift.

Lowe's next scheduled earnings release, covering the fiscal third quarter ending October 2026, has not yet been announced as of the publication date of this article. That report will provide the next objective data point on whether comparable store sales trends are stabilizing, worsening, or beginning to recover.