Democrats Lead in Texas, Ohio, Alaska Senate Races, Poll Finds
A New York Times/Siena College survey of five states Trump won in 2024 by double digits shows Democratic Senate candidates at or ahead of Republican opponents, indicating competitive midterm...
Democratic Senate candidates hold leads or ties in five states that President Donald Trump carried in 2024, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll published in late September 2026 and reported by the Washington Examiner. The poll covered Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas.
Trump carried each of the five states in the 2024 presidential election by margins ranging from 11 to 16 percentage points, according to certified election results recorded by the Federal Election Commission. A Democratic lead or tie in any of those states would represent a meaningful shift from the 2024 baseline.
The New York Times/Siena College poll is a recurring national survey conducted through telephone and online interviews with registered or likely voters, depending on the race. Siena College Research Institute publishes its methodology, including sample sizes and margins of error, alongside each release. The specific margins, sample sizes, and field dates for the five-state survey referenced in the Washington Examiner report were not included in the available source material. The full Siena College release would contain those figures.
Control of the U.S. Senate is decided by 34 seats up for election in the 2026 midterm cycle. Republicans currently hold a 53-to-47 seat majority in the chamber, per the official Senate roster published at senate.gov. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to reach a 51-seat majority if they also hold the White House, or three seats if the vice president provides a tiebreaking vote under a Democratic administration.
Texas presents a specific target for national Democrats. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) is seeking re-election in 2026 after winning his 2020 race by 9.7 percentage points, according to Texas Secretary of State certified results. His 2026 Democratic opponent has not been confirmed in available source material. The Federal Election Commission's candidate filing database would contain the current list of declared candidates.
In Ohio, Senator Jon Husted (R-OH) holds the seat previously occupied by J.D. Vance, who resigned to serve as Vice President. Governor Mike DeWine appointed Husted to the seat in January 2025, per the Ohio Governor's office announcement. A competitive Ohio Senate race in 2026 would mirror the 2024 cycle, in which Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown lost his seat to Bernie Moreno by approximately 3.1 percentage points, per Ohio Secretary of State certified results.
Alaska's Senate seat is held by Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who won her most recent election in 2022 under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, receiving 53.7 percent of the final round vote, per Alaska Division of Elections certified results. Alaska uses a nonpartisan top-four primary system, meaning candidates from any party advance to the general election based on vote share rather than party affiliation.
In Kansas, Senator Jerry Moran (R-KS) is up for re-election in 2026. Moran won his 2020 race by 23.6 percentage points, according to Kansas Secretary of State certified results. The poll's finding of a tie in Kansas, if confirmed in the full Siena release, would represent the largest shift of any state in the survey relative to 2020 results.
Iowa's Senate seat is held by Joni Ernst (R-IA), who won her 2020 race by 6.6 percentage points, according to Iowa Secretary of State certified results. Iowa trended more Republican in 2024 than in prior cycles.
Historically, the party that does not hold the presidency gains seats in midterm elections more often than it loses them. Since 1946, the president's party has lost Senate seats in 13 of 20 midterm elections, according to data compiled by the Senate Historical Office.
What remains unknown is the full polling methodology, individual candidate matchups, specific margin figures for each state, and funding sources for the survey. The complete New York Times/Siena College release, including crosstabs and methodology statements, would answer those questions.