Scope Ratings Affirms U.S. AA-Minus Credit Grade, Flags Debt Risk

A European credit agency's confirmation of the U.S. Rating at a level below the top tier reflects the same structural fiscal concern now cited by multiple rating agencies, suggesting the debate...

European credit rating agency Scope Ratings has affirmed its sovereign credit rating for the United States at AA-minus with a stable outlook, according to a report cited by Handelsblatt on October 2, 2026. Alongside the affirmation, Scope issued warnings about rising government debt, political risks, and threats to financial stability.

The AA-minus designation places the United States two notches below the highest possible rating of AAA on Scope's scale. That rating level is consistent with the position assigned by Fitch Ratings, which downgraded the U.S. From AAA to AA-plus in August 2023, citing fiscal deterioration and governance concerns, according to Fitch's published rating action at the time.

Scope Ratings, headquartered in Berlin, is a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization registered with the European Securities and Markets Authority. While it is less widely cited in U.S. Capital markets than Moody's, S&P Global, or Fitch, its ratings are used by European institutional investors who hold U.S. Treasury securities, making its assessments directly relevant to the cost and demand dynamics of U.S. Government debt.

The Handelsblatt report identified three specific risk categories flagged by Scope: the trajectory of U.S. Government debt, political risk, and financial stability risk. The report did not specify numerical debt thresholds cited by Scope. The full text of the Scope rating report, including precise figures and methodology, would provide the authoritative source for those thresholds.

The U.S. Federal debt held by the public stood at approximately $28.3 trillion as of the most recent Treasury Department Fiscal Data report available before this publication date. Total gross federal debt has exceeded $35 trillion, according to the U.S. Treasury's Debt to the Penny tracker. The Congressional Budget Office, in its most recent long-term budget outlook, projected that debt held by the public would reach 116 percent of gross domestic product by 2034 under current law.

Political risk, as a rating factor, typically encompasses the ability of a government to enact budgetary policy, service its obligations without legislative disruption, and maintain institutional credibility. The United States has experienced repeated debt ceiling confrontations, including standoffs in 2011, 2013, 2021, and 2023, each of which drew commentary from rating agencies. S&P Global downgraded the U.S. To AA-plus in 2011 following one such episode, and has not restored the AAA rating since, according to S&P's published records.

Moody's remains the sole major rating agency still assigning the U.S. A top-tier rating, holding an Aaa designation as of its most recent published action, though it has placed the U.S. On negative outlook since November 2023. A Moody's rating action would be required to confirm any change to that status.

For U.S. Investors, sovereign credit ratings affect Treasury bond yields indirectly: a sustained downward re-rating trend from multiple agencies can increase the risk premium demanded by institutional buyers, putting upward pressure on yields. Rising yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries increase borrowing costs for the federal government and can ripple into mortgage rates, corporate bond yields, and equity valuations through the discount rate mechanism.

Separately, former Council of Economic Advisers Chair Cecilia Rouse told Bloomberg's "The Close" on October 2, 2026, that U.S. Monthly job creation may be entering a new normal, with the breakeven level for labor market stability potentially settling near 50,000 jobs per month, down from the 100,000-to-150,000 range frequently cited in prior years. A lower breakeven figure would reflect slower labor force growth as the U.S. Population ages, according to standard labor economics frameworks. The next Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report would be the primary data point to test that projection.

The combination of a stable but sub-top-tier credit rating from Scope and evolving labor market baselines points to a fiscal and economic environment in which U.S. Policymakers face narrowing margins on both the revenue and spending sides of the federal ledger. What remains unknown is whether Congress will adopt a fiscal framework that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio; the next Congressional Budget Office baseline update would be the primary document to watch for that assessment.