NAM CEO: US Manufacturers Face Tariff and Trade Uncertainty Heading Into 2027
With orders picking up but cost pressures mounting, the manufacturing sector's outlook depends heavily on how US-China trade negotiations develop in the coming months.
National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons said on September 25, 2026, that US manufacturers are seeking clearer progress on trade policy as President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping prepare for additional meetings this year. Timmons made the remarks in an interview on Bloomberg's "Balance of Power" with host Joe Mathieu.
Timmons described the overall manufacturing outlook as optimistic, citing a pickup in orders across the sector. However, he identified three specific headwinds constraining growth: tariffs, energy costs, and ongoing trade uncertainty with China.
The National Association of Manufacturers represents more than 14,000 member companies, ranging from small and mid-sized businesses to large manufacturers, according to the NAM's own published membership figures. The organization regularly surveys its members on business conditions and submits formal comments to federal agencies on trade and regulatory matters.
Timmons did not specify which tariff lines are creating the most pressure on member companies. The precise tariff schedule currently in effect on Chinese imports is governed by executive orders and Section 301 actions administered by the Office of the United States Trade Representative. What tariff rates would be acceptable to manufacturers, and what a final trade framework might look like, remains unknown pending the outcome of the Trump-Xi meetings referenced by Timmons.
Energy costs represent a separate variable in the manufacturing cost picture. The US Energy Information Administration's most recent Monthly Energy Review, published in September 2026, tracks industrial energy prices including natural gas and electricity, both of which are significant inputs for domestic manufacturing operations. Timmons did not provide specific energy cost figures in the Bloomberg interview.
The reference to rising orders is consistent with recent Institute for Supply Management data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, a monthly survey-based index, tracks new orders, production, employment, and inventories across US manufacturers. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. The specific September 2026 ISM reading had not been published as of this report's publication date.
US-China trade relations have been a persistent source of policy uncertainty for domestic manufacturers since the first round of Section 301 tariffs was imposed in 2018. Multiple rounds of negotiations, partial agreements, and renewed tensions have followed over the intervening years, making long-term capital planning difficult for companies that source components from or sell finished goods into China.
Timmons's call for "more stability" reflects a consistent NAM policy position. The organization has previously submitted comments to the USTR urging predictable trade frameworks and has testified before Congress on the costs of tariff uncertainty to manufacturing supply chains. Those comments are part of the public USTR record.
The timing of the Bloomberg interview coincides with a period of active diplomatic engagement. The White House has not released a formal agenda for the Trump-Xi meetings referenced by Timmons, and the specific dates of those meetings were not confirmed in the Bloomberg segment as reported.
For US investors with exposure to the industrial and materials sectors, the NAM CEO's remarks highlight that the near-term earnings environment for manufacturers remains sensitive to policy outcomes rather than purely demand-side factors. Sector-specific ETFs tracking US industrials, such as those benchmarked to the S&P 500 Industrials index, reflect this policy sensitivity in their volatility profiles. What specific policy actions would reduce the uncertainty Timmons described remains to be determined by the outcome of executive-level trade talks.