UC Berkeley Poll Shows Raman Leading Bass by 11 Points in LA Mayor Race
With six weeks until the November election, a double-digit polling gap in the nation's second-largest city signals a competitive race that could reshape Democratic coalition politics in a major...
Councilmember Nithya Raman leads incumbent Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass by 11 percentage points among likely voters in a new survey released September 23, 2026, according to the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and Los Angeles Times poll. The poll shows Raman at 39 percent support compared to Bass at 28 percent.
The UC Berkeley/LA Times survey is a publicly available poll conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, which has tracked California electoral contests for decades. The methodology, margin of error, sample size, and field dates were not fully detailed in the available source material. Those specifics would be contained in the poll's full topline document, which the institute typically releases alongside survey results.
Bass, a former United States Representative for California's 37th Congressional District, was elected mayor of Los Angeles in November 2022, defeating businessman Rick Caruso. She received approximately 55 percent of the vote in that race, according to Los Angeles County election records.
Raman currently serves as the Los Angeles City Councilmember for the 4th District, a seat she has held since 2020. She has positioned her campaign around housing, homelessness, and public safety policy, according to her publicly filed campaign materials with the Los Angeles City Ethics Commission.
The Los Angeles mayoral election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Because Los Angeles conducts nonpartisan mayoral elections, both candidates advanced from a primary regardless of party registration. Voters will choose directly between the two in the general election.
Bass has faced sustained criticism over her handling of the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, which destroyed thousands of structures across multiple neighborhoods. A Los Angeles City Controller audit released in mid-2025 documented emergency response coordination failures, though the audit did not assign individual fault to the mayor's office for specific decisions. The full audit is available through the Los Angeles City Controller's public records portal.
Campaign finance filings with the Los Angeles City Ethics Commission would show total fundraising and expenditure figures for both candidates through the most recent reporting deadline. Those figures were not included in the available source material and would be required to assess the financial standing of each campaign at this stage of the race.
Polling in the 2022 mayoral race showed significant variance from final results in the weeks before election day, with some surveys underestimating Bass's margin. That history is relevant context for interpreting current survey data.
What remains unknown is whether the 11-point gap reflects a durable shift in voter preference or a moment of particular vulnerability for Bass tied to specific recent events. A second independent poll or the release of the full UC Berkeley methodology document would allow for a more complete assessment of where the race stands.