War and Drought Push 645 Million People Toward Hunger, Report Finds

The convergence of the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflict, and an incoming El Niño cycle is compressing global food supply at a moment when the most economically vulnerable populations have...

An estimated 645 million people worldwide face hunger as overlapping crises in food production and distribution compound one another, according to analysis published September 22, 2026 by Daily Maverick.

Three separate pressures are identified as driving the deterioration: Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine, the continuing conflict in the Middle East, and the arrival of a new El Niño weather cycle. Each disrupts food supply chains independently. Together, they are reducing global reserves and elevating prices simultaneously.

Ukraine and Russia together account for a substantial share of global wheat, sunflower oil, and fertilizer exports. The war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, has curtailed Ukrainian agricultural output and complicated Black Sea shipping routes that move grain to import-dependent nations in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.

The Middle East conflict adds a second layer of strain. Supply chains passing through the region, including those routed through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, have faced repeated disruption since late 2023. Shipping firms have rerouted cargo around the Cape of Good Hope, adding transit time and cost that is ultimately reflected in food import prices for low-income countries.

El Niño, the periodic warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, drives drought conditions across parts of sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Central America. The incoming cycle is projected to reduce cereal and staple crop yields in several regions already reliant on food imports, narrowing the margin between domestic production and population need.

The Daily Maverick analysis notes that while food price increases and supply reductions affect all nations, the effect is not uniform. Lower-income countries spend a higher proportion of household income on food, hold smaller strategic grain reserves, have more limited access to credit for emergency imports, and rely more heavily on subsistence agriculture vulnerable to climate variability.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations tracks a Global Food Price Index that rose sharply following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and has remained elevated relative to pre-war baselines. FAO data from mid-2026 shows cereal prices remaining above the five-year average for the period preceding the invasion.

The World Food Programme has previously identified a funding gap between pledged humanitarian food aid and the resources required to reach populations in acute need, particularly in Sudan, Yemen, Afghanistan, and parts of the Horn of Africa. Whether that gap has widened or narrowed in the current period is not specified in the source material reviewed; WFP's current operational budget figures would clarify that question.

Historically, simultaneous supply shocks of this type have preceded periods of social and political instability in food-import-dependent states. The 2007 to 2008 global food price crisis, which coincided with drought in major producing regions and rising energy costs, contributed to protests in more than 30 countries, according to research published by the International Food Policy Research Institute.

The analysis does not attribute responsibility for inaction to any single government or international body, but notes that when disruptions occur, their effects extend well beyond the immediate conflict zones that generate them. Policy responses available to affected governments include expanding domestic food production incentives, building strategic reserves, and diversifying import partners, though each requires capital and institutional capacity that food-insecure states often lack.

No international summit or binding framework specifically addressing the combined food security consequences of the Ukraine war, the Middle East conflict, and El Niño was referenced in the source material as scheduled or underway as of the date of publication.