2026 Midterm Ad Spending Projected to Reach $11.6 Billion, a Cycle Record
If the AdImpact projection holds, the 2026 midterms will be the first in U.S. History where a non-presidential cycle outspends the immediately preceding presidential one, reshaping assumptions...
Political advertising expenditures for the 2026 midterm election cycle are projected to reach $11.6 billion, according to tracking firm AdImpact, as reported by the Washington Examiner. That figure would exceed the $8.9 billion spent during the 2022 midterms, which itself set a midterm record at the time, and would also surpass the $11.2 billion spent across the entire 2024 presidential election cycle.
The comparison to 2024 is notable because presidential election years have historically commanded the largest advertising budgets, driven by the cost of contesting 50 states plus presidential primary spending. A midterm cycle surpassing that benchmark would mark a structural change in how political dollars are allocated across the two-year election calendar.
AdImpact is a nonpartisan ad tracking firm whose cycle-over-cycle data is used by campaigns, media buyers, and researchers. Its 2022 midterm figure of $8.9 billion was itself a 26 percent increase over the 2018 midterm cycle, according to public reporting at the time. The projected $11.6 billion for 2026 represents a further 30 percent increase over 2022.
The growth in total spending reflects several converging factors. The number of competitive Senate and House seats has increased heading into 2026, with control of both chambers uncertain. Advertising inventory in competitive media markets becomes more expensive as demand rises, pushing overall dollar figures higher even when the number of ads purchased remains flat. Neither the total number of ad units purchased nor the precise breakdown by party or chamber is available in the AdImpact projection as reported.
For context, the Federal Election Commission requires disclosure of all coordinated and independent expenditures by campaigns, party committees, and outside groups. Those filings, updated periodically through the cycle, would show which specific races and which organizations are driving the largest share of the $11.6 billion projection. As of September 18, 2026, the complete picture of cycle spending will not be available until post-election FEC reports are filed, typically in December 2026.
Outside spending, including from Super PACs and 501(c)(4) organizations, has grown as a share of total political advertising in each cycle since the Supreme Court's 2010 decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission. The degree to which outside groups versus candidate committees are driving the 2026 surge is not specified in the AdImpact data as reported. FEC independent expenditure filings, which are public and searchable at fec.gov, would identify the largest outside spenders by race and by week.
The geographic concentration of the $11.6 billion is also unspecified in the current projection. In past cycles, a majority of political ad dollars have flowed into a small number of competitive states and districts. In 2022, according to AdImpact data cited in contemporaneous news coverage, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona alone accounted for a disproportionate share of Senate ad spending. The comparable list for 2026 is not yet established in publicly available AdImpact breakdowns.
Broadcast television has historically captured the largest share of political ad revenue in each cycle, though streaming and digital platforms have taken a growing percentage since 2016. The split between broadcast, cable, digital, and streaming for the 2026 cycle is not detailed in the current projection.
For campaigns and outside groups operating in competitive races, the practical consequence of a higher-spending environment is that the cost of reaching persuadable voters in contested media markets increases. Campaigns that cannot match opponent spending on air must find alternative means of voter contact, including digital advertising on platforms not subject to the same pricing pressures as broadcast television.
The previous TCT report Trump PAC Deploys Tens of Millions in Safe House Districts Before Midterms documented specific outside-group spending patterns in the 2026 cycle, offering a ground-level look at where some of the projected $11.6 billion is being directed.
What remains unknown is how close the final certified spending total will come to AdImpact's $11.6 billion projection. Projections made before a cycle concludes depend on assumptions about late-cycle spending surges, which can be difficult to model. The public record that would confirm or revise the figure is the set of post-general FEC filings due from all federal candidates, party committees, and independent expenditure filers in December 2026.