Newsom Falls to Third in 2028 Democratic Primary Poll, Harris Leads at 17 Percent
A single poll does not determine a nomination, but the shift in relative standing among named Democrats reflects measurable movement in early-cycle primary preference data.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has dropped to third place among Democratic voters considering 2028 presidential candidates, according to a Bowling Green State University and YouGov poll released September 16, 2026. Newsom recorded 14 percent support in the survey, placing behind former Vice President Kamala Harris at 17 percent and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 16 percent. The poll was reported by the New York Post.
The result marks a measurable decline from Newsom's position in a February 2026 YouGov poll, in which he ranked first or second alongside Harris. The Bowling Green State University and YouGov partnership has conducted rolling 2028 Democratic preference surveys throughout the current election cycle. The specific sample size, margin of error, and field dates for the September poll were not included in the available source material. Those figures would appear in the full Bowling Green State University and YouGov topline results document.
Harris, who served as Vice President under President Joe Biden from January 2021 through January 2025 and was the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, leads the September survey with 17 percent. Buttigieg, who served as Secretary of Transportation from February 2021 through January 2025 (Senate confirmation vote, 86-13, Congressional Record, February 3, 2021), registers at 16 percent in the same poll.
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also registered increased support in the September survey, according to the New York Post report. The exact percentage she received was not included in the available source material. The full Bowling Green State University and YouGov crosstabs would contain her precise figure.
Newsom told CNN during the week of September 14, 2026 that he would not launch a White House campaign if Harris entered the race, according to the New York Post report. Harris has not filed any presidential exploratory committee paperwork with the Federal Election Commission as of September 16, 2026. FEC records are publicly searchable at fec.gov and would reflect any such filing.
The Democratic Party currently holds no sitting president and no presumptive nominee heading into the 2028 cycle. The party is in a post-2024 nomination cycle reorganization phase, with the Democratic National Committee's next formal presidential primary calendar not yet set. The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee would be the body to establish those dates.
For historical comparison, 2028 preference polling conducted this far in advance of the primary calendar has limited predictive value. In the 2008 cycle, Senator Hillary Clinton led early 2006 Democratic preference polls but faced a competitive primary before securing the nomination in 2016. In the 2020 cycle, former Vice President Biden was not the consistent poll leader in 2018 surveys. These precedents are documented in archived polling databases maintained by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics.
Newsom was elected Governor of California in November 2018 and re-elected in November 2022 with 59.2 percent of the vote, per California Secretary of State certified results. His current term runs through January 2027, at which point he is term-limited under California law and cannot seek a third consecutive term.
Buttigieg has not filed any FEC presidential exploratory or campaign committee paperwork as of September 16, 2026, based on publicly available FEC records. Neither has Ocasio-Cortez, who would reach the constitutionally required age of 35 by the time of the 2028 general election, having been born October 13, 1989.
What remains unknown: the full methodology, sample size, and margin of error for the September 2026 Bowling Green State University and YouGov poll. That information would be contained in the poll's publicly released topline document, which Bowling Green State University or YouGov would publish on their respective institutional websites. It is also unknown whether any of the named potential candidates have begun informal fundraising or staffing activity that would not yet require FEC disclosure.