Cook Political Report Shifts New Hampshire Senate Race to Toss-Up

The rating change signals that a seat Democrats had been favored to hold is now considered genuinely competitive, with direct implications for which party controls the Senate after the 2026 midterms.

Election forecaster Cook Political Report reclassified the New Hampshire U.S. Senate race from "leans Democrat" to "toss-up" on September 15, 2026, according to a report by the Washington Examiner. The shift reflects what the forecaster described as growing momentum for Republican candidate and former Sen. John Sununu in general election polling against the Democratic incumbent, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH).

Cook Political Report is not the first major forecaster to move in this direction. Inside Elections previously shifted its rating of the New Hampshire contest to the right as well, according to the same Washington Examiner report. Two independent forecasting organizations reaching a similar conclusion within a comparable timeframe provides a measurable data point about how race watchers are interpreting current polling and fundraising trends in the state.

The New Hampshire seat is one of a limited number of Senate contests in the 2026 cycle where both parties see a realistic path to victory. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats following the 2024 elections, per the official Senate party composition record maintained by the Senate Historical Office. Democrats would need a net gain of seats to reach a majority, making each competitive race consequential to both caucuses.

John Sununu previously served as a U.S. Senator from New Hampshire from 2003 to 2009, per congressional records maintained by the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress. He lost his 2008 re-election bid to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. His return as the Republican nominee in 2026 marks his first Senate campaign in nearly two decades.

Chris Pappas has represented New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District since January 2019, according to the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress. He was first elected in the 2018 midterm cycle and re-elected in subsequent cycles. His campaign for the open Senate seat, vacated after Sen. Shaheen did not seek re-election, placed him in a statewide contest for the first time.

New Hampshire has a mixed recent electoral history. The state supported Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 in presidential contests, per Federal Election Commission certified results. However, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, father of Senate candidate John Sununu, won four consecutive gubernatorial elections in the same state, per New Hampshire Secretary of State records, demonstrating that the state's electorate has supported both parties at the statewide level within recent cycles.

Cook Political Report rates Senate races on a seven-point scale: Solid Democrat, Likely Democrat, Leans Democrat, Toss-Up, Leans Republican, Likely Republican, and Solid Republican. A move from "Leans Democrat" directly to "Toss-Up" represents a two-step shift on that scale. Cook Political Report's full methodology for determining rating changes, including the specific polling data and financial metrics it weighed in this decision, had not been published in full as of the date of this report.

Fundraising data for both candidates is reported to the Federal Election Commission on a quarterly basis. The most recent complete quarterly filings available from the FEC as of the publication of this article cover the period ending June 30, 2026. The FEC database is the primary public record for comparing candidate cash on hand, total receipts, and donor composition. This story will be updated when third-quarter FEC filings, covering July through September 2026, become available.

What remains unknown is the specific polling average or set of surveys that directly prompted Cook Political Report to act on September 15. The forecaster has not published a detailed written explanation of the factors behind this particular rating change as of this report's publication date. A formal written analysis from Cook Political Report, when released, would be the document most likely to answer that question.