NEWFIELDS, N.H. — A brand new ballot in New Hampshire, dwelling to the one aggressive gubernatorial election this 12 months, signifies a detailed race within the battle to succeed standard Republican Gov. Chris Sununu.
And the outcomes of the survey and one other ballot launched within the Granite State earlier within the week recommend former President Trump’s standing in New Hampshire within the White Home race could also be a drag on down-ballot Republicans.
In line with a College of New Hampshire Survey Heart ballot launched Thursday, Democratic gubernatorial nominee and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig holds a razor-thin 47%-46% edge over former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, the Republican nominee.
A ballot launched earlier this week from the Saint Anselm Faculty Survey Heart additionally indicated a coin-flip race, with Ayotte holding a slight edge.
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Former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in New Hampshire, speaks with voters on the Hampton Seaside Seafood Pageant Sept. 7, 2024. (Kelly Ayotte marketing campaign)
Ayotte, because of her six years within the Senate and her tenure as a state lawyer basic earlier than her service on Capitol Hill, has far better title identification than Craig and has a large marketing campaign money benefit over her rival.
However the brand new polls recommend Trump could also be doing Ayotte no favors.
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“Kelly’s very talked-about, however I do suppose Trump’s a burden,” longtime Granite State-based GOP marketing consultant and former state lawyer basic Tom Rath instructed Fox Information.
Trump got here inside roughly 3,000 votes of carrying New Hampshire in his 2016 presidential election victory. However 4 years in the past, President Biden topped Trump by over seven factors in New Hampshire.
Former President Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, delivers remarks alongside supporters, marketing campaign workers and relations throughout his major evening rally on the Sheraton Jan. 23, 2024, in Nashua, N.H. (Alex Wong/Getty Photos)
The UNH poll signifies Trump is down by 11 factors to Vice President Kamala Harris. And the Saint Anselm Faculty survey factors to an higher single-digit lead for Harris in New Hampshire.
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“If this have been a straight-up election with out the presidential race on it, I feel Kelly would have a lead exterior the margin of error,” argued Rath, who stayed unaffiliated within the 2024 Republican presidential major race and served as a high adviser to Trump rival and then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich within the 2016 GOP nomination battle.
A New Hampshire-based Republican strategist instructed Fox Information “Trump is unquestionably an anchor on Kelly and her marketing campaign proper now, and she or he’s the flagship.”
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, arrives to talk throughout a marketing campaign cease on the Throwback Brewery in North Hampton, N.H., Sept. 4, 2024. (AP Photograph/Jacquelyn Martin)
The strategist, who requested to stay nameless to talk extra freely, famous that Ayotte’s “standing as a flagship means everyone’s taking photographs at her. There’s not a variety of proof of exercise in New Hampshire by the Trump marketing campaign, so it is actually Kelly versus the world proper now.”
And one other Granite State-based Republican marketing consultant additionally pointed to meager involvement and sources in New Hampshire coming from the Republican Nationwide Committee and the Nationwide Republican Congressional Committee.
“Kelly’s out combating this factor all by herself. That is not a very good place to be. You want different folks drawing hearth,” stated the marketing consultant, who additionally requested for anonymity. “[Trump’s] not specializing in New Hampshire. His unhealthy ballot numbers and lack of enthusiasm is dragging the entire ticket down.”
Craig, who served three two-year phrases steering the Granite State’s largest metropolis, narrowly topped Cinde Warmington, the one Democrat on the state’s five-member Government Council, to seize their social gathering’s nomination in final week’s state major.
Ayotte, a former state lawyer basic earlier than profitable election to the Senate in 2010, soundly defeated former New Hampshire Senate President Chuck Morse to win the GOP gubernatorial nomination.
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Sununu, who determined in opposition to operating for re-election this 12 months after profitable 4 straight two-year phrases as New Hampshire governor (New Hampshire and neighboring Vermont are the one states within the nation that elect governors each two years) endorsed Ayotte this summer time in her major race.
And Ayotte pledges to proceed the Sununu agenda if elected to succeed the favored GOP governor.
Republican Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire is interviewed by Fox Information Digital July 11, 2024, in Newfields, N.H. (Fox Information/Paul Steinhauser)
Ayotte was a rising star within the Republican Occasion in 2016 with a burgeoning profile on nationwide safety as she was operating for re-election.
However simply forward of the 2016 election, she withdrew her help for Trump over the “Entry Hollywood” controversy, when Trump made crude feedback about grabbing girls with out their consent.
“I can not and won’t help a candidate for president who brags about degrading and assaulting girls,” Ayotte stated on the time.
Ayotte misplaced re-election by a razor-thin margin of simply over 1,000 votes to then-Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan.
Ayotte stayed impartial in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation presidential major, however she endorsed Trump in early March, proper after he clinched the GOP nomination.
Rath, pointing to Ayotte’s backing of Trump, stated “her place, which was to embrace him and never create house, I perceive why she’s made it, and you are taking the results of it … if that is the highest of the ticket, and also you’re the subsequent degree down, it is actually onerous to get round that downside in a race.”
Additionally working in opposition to Ayotte is an avalanche of unfavorable advertisements which have been operating in opposition to her all summer time, courtesy of nationwide Democratic teams.
The assaults have helped to lift Ayotte’s unfavorable rankings in each the UNH Survey Heart and Saint Anselm Faculty polls.
