Two Florida poll measures on abortion and leisure marijuana are turning the state’s elections the other way up, worrying Republicans whereas giving Democrats hope on this 12 months’s presidential battle and in a key Senate race.
Polls have tightened within the battle between former President Trump and Vice President Harris, and within the Senate race between GOP Sen. Rick Scott and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D). The abortion and marijuana measures may carry extra Democratic-leaning voters to the polls.
Florida voters will have the ability to weigh in on Amendments Three and 4, which might legalize leisure marijuana and enshrine abortion rights within the state’s structure, respectively.
Democrats level out that the problems fired up key elements of the Democratic constituency through the 2022 midterm elections and in Virginia’s off-year elections.
“It’s clear that these poll measures are going to have an effect on turnout and enthusiasm, however most significantly they’re additionally going to be investing aggressively in efforts to mobilize voters, which is a software we want as Democrats,” mentioned Christian Ulvert, a Florida-based Democratic strategist who served as a senior adviser to President Biden’s 2020 marketing campaign within the state.
Republican strategists, then again, warn the state has a historical past of voting for liberal poll measures and Republican candidates throughout the identical election. For instance, in 2020, former President Trump gained Florida by simply greater than 3 factors, whereas the measure to boost the state’s minimal wage handed with 60.82 p.c of the vote.
Florida Republicans have seen main victories since 2020 which have helped transfer the crimson state additional into the conservative column. Whereas Democrats throughout the nation efficiently campaigned on tying their Republican opponents to the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022, Florida Republicans noticed sweeping double-digit victories.
However abortion entry has since modified in Florida, impacting the political local weather. In 2023, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed the state’s six-week abortion ban into legislation. One 12 months later, Florida’s Supreme Court docket accepted the ban but in addition allowed for the poll measure to go earlier than voters in November.
Harris’s and Mucarsel-Powell’s campaigns have zeroed in on the problem of abortion within the state. Earlier this month, Harris’s marketing campaign launched her “Reproductive Rights for All” bus tour in Palm Seashore, with Mucarsel-Powell in attendance.
“They’re motivated to vote on abortion,” mentioned Mucarsel-Powell’s communications director Lauren Chou. “It’s not simply that Democratic voters or girls voters are drawn out due to the abortion subject, it’s mobilizing all throughout the spectrum, I might say. They’re popping out, they usually’re voting for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, anyone who’s going to combat for freedom.”
Final month, Trump confirmed he would vote no on Modification 4, after saying the state’s six-week ban was too strict.
“On the similar time, the Democrats are radical as a result of the 9 months is only a ridiculous scenario,” the previous president mentioned. “All of that stuff is unacceptable, so I shall be voting no for that cause.”
Florida Republican strategist Ford O’Connell referred to as Trump’s place “most acceptable to Floridians on abortion statewide.”
Scott has additionally mentioned he’ll vote no on Modification 4. Earlier this 12 months, he mentioned he would assist a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions over the six-week ban.
Different Republicans going through reelection in Florida have been much less clear about how they’ll vote on the modification. In a Thursday interview with Politico, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) mentioned her opinion on the measure “doesn’t matter” and that questions of coverage shouldn’t be positioned on the poll.
Whereas Republicans like Luna are going through assault from Democrats on abortion, DeSantis is urging Republicans to publicly voice their assist for the modification.
“It’s vital that each one of our political leaders, , arise and be counted. Proper now. , there’s some those that simply, it’s just like the political winds. Like if the winds are towards you, you run and conceal. That’s not management, that isn’t what’s going to make this state nice,” DeSantis mentioned on Sept. 7, talking at a Florida GOP fundraising dinner.
Republicans are much less united of their assist for Modification Three. Trump confirmed final week that he would vote for the measure to legalize leisure marijuana. The announcement led to swift pushback from the Harris marketing campaign, which accused Trump of “blatant pandering.”
Nonetheless, Scott and DeSantis have come out towards the measure. Scott referenced his brother’s lifelong wrestle with substance abuse in his resolution.
Republicans say there’s a technique behind Trump and Scott’s stances on the marijuana modification in relation to interesting to sure age demographics.
“[Trump] understands that that performs higher with voters beneath 40,” O’Connell mentioned.
A Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research poll launched final month confirmed an age hole in assist for the modification, with 69 p.c of 18- to 49-year-olds saying they have been in assist and solely 47 p.c of voters over 50 saying the identical.
In Collier County, which incorporates the Naples-Marco Island metropolitan space, assist for the modification may find yourself having a major influence among the many area’s massive senior inhabitants. Earlier this week, the county’s board of commissioners voted 5-0 to formally oppose Modification Three. Scott, who has a house in Collier County, gained the county with 65 p.c of the vote in 2018.
However proponents of Modification Three are skeptical of the narrative that seniors are much less supportive of legalizing marijuana.
“They have been the identical folks I used to be nervous about with my different amendments,” mentioned Florida lawyer and Democratic donor John Morgan, who led two main campaigns to legalize medical marijuana within the state, certainly one of which handed with greater than 70 p.c assist.
Morgan has been dubbed “Pot Daddy” for his marijuana legalization efforts.
Republicans and Democrats acknowledge that the efforts behind the poll measures are technically nonpartisan.
“Sixty p.c is a reasonably excessive threshold to fulfill,” mentioned Chris Hartline, a senior adviser to Scott’s marketing campaign.
“The fact is to get 60 p.c they want Republicans to vote for them. They don’t need these poll measures to be tied to Debbie’s marketing campaign or Kamala’s marketing campaign, frankly,” he mentioned.
However Democrats keep they’re constructing a broad tent with the assistance of the 2 points.
“Neither of those points are partisan,” mentioned Florida Democratic Occasion Chair Nikki Fried. ”You’re seeing that Democrats, Republicans and Independents are coming collectively for Modification 4 and the identical factor on the hashish facet.”
Morgan predicted the 2 measures is not going to damage Democrats.
“It may solely assist,” he mentioned.
